Comments on: What Employment Prediction Tells About Global Warming http://enableate.com/steve/2009/1606 make it happen Fri, 30 Jul 2010 07:54:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2 By: Dan http://enableate.com/steve/2009/1606#comment-24810 Dan Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:28:07 +0000 http://enableate.com/steve/2009/1606#comment-24810 My main objection to this line of reasoning is that it is based on the assumption that a small number of data points (for example, three months of data collection) will have a more tight fit with the model than a large number of data points (for example, 45 years of data collection). In my opinion this is a shaky assumption - there's a reason collecting more data increases your confidence. For example, in my experience, weather forecasters are only slightly more accurate than the man on the street at telling you whether it will rain between 3 o'clock and 4 o'clock tomorrow (short-term prediction), but they are fairly good at telling you whether it will rain at all in the next week (long-term prediction). My main objection to this line of reasoning is that it is based on the assumption that a small number of data points (for example, three months of data collection) will have a more tight fit with the model than a large number of data points (for example, 45 years of data collection). In my opinion this is a shaky assumption - there’s a reason collecting more data increases your confidence.

For example, in my experience, weather forecasters are only slightly more accurate than the man on the street at telling you whether it will rain between 3 o’clock and 4 o’clock tomorrow (short-term prediction), but they are fairly good at telling you whether it will rain at all in the next week (long-term prediction).

]]> By: Michael http://enableate.com/steve/2009/1606#comment-24688 Michael Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:26:00 +0000 http://enableate.com/steve/2009/1606#comment-24688 I had this a day before Instapundit. http://newsgangster.blogspot.com/2009/11/hope-vs-reality-economic-stimulus.html I had this a day before Instapundit.

http://newsgangster.blogspot.com/2009/11/hope-vs-reality-economic-stimulus.html

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