Instapundit directs me to this report advising which patients should be given care in the event of a massive pandemic where medical resources must be conserved. I want you to think about this for a second because this is the same kind of reasoning we see in global warming.
A groups of experts, who have no actual experience working in a massive pandemic flu, have posited a set of outcomes, developed a set of guidelines for operation in those hypothetical outcomes, and then argue these guidelines should be applied to all hospitals that serve the 300 million or so people of this country. Can you imagine the kind of pride it takes to earnestly make these suggestions.
First, these so-called experts have no actual experience with a national or global pandemic. It’s simply assumed they do because their ‘expertise’ in some field appears to have some vague association with determining hospital policy during a catastrophe. However, given the fact that not a single one of them have ever actually been in a national or global pandemic, its hard to really see how their current expertise, whatever that may be, is more useful in foreseeing the events of such a pandemic, or that they would have more insight in setting policy then just a typical mix of people forced into that situation.
Its bad that these experts are riding on the coat tails of an association between their expertise and a perception that they are qualified prognostications, but then they suggest guidelines in which the entire medical system should be behave in this situation. Instead of taking a position that each facility should set it’s own policy so as to adapt to the conditions it finds itself in, these ‘experts’ wish to apply a set of rubrics that all facilities across the whole country, if not the world should follow. Its in this suggestion that their hubris becomes manifest. It’s one thing to shoot the shit with your colleagues about how the medical system will behave in a pandemic, but an entirely different thing when you actually argue for setting policy based on your prognostications. These experts think their conjecture is so likely to be true, that it’s best to advise how thousands upon thousand of medical facilities should respond to some future catastrophe.
It’s even worse than that. These same experts believe that the application of their rubrics will result in a better outcome than the collective action of all the medical professionals in the actual pandemic adapting their decisions to match the context of the local community. These experts are suggesting a command economy approach to managing a pandemic will be superior to a free market approach. History has really shown that to be true.
These experts know what no one can possibly know and believe their rubrics will be superior to managing the pandemic then medical professionals that develop an intimate understanding of of the catastrophe and adapt as context demands. Such belief is the very definition of hubris.